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- W4200205370 abstract "Abstract Drought frequency and severity are projected to increase in the future, but the changes are expected to be unevenly distributed across the globe. Based on multi-model simulations under three different future emissions and shared socioeconomic pathways, we show that a significant drought intensification is expected in dry regions, whereby the severity depends on greenhouse gas emissions and development pathways. The drought hotspots are located in the sub-tropical regions where a moderate to extreme summer drought in today’s climate is expected to become a new normal by the end of the 21 st century under the warmest scenario. On average, under the warmest future scenario, the drought occurrence rate is projected to be 100% higher than that of the low emission scenario. Further, for the regions which are currently less affected by long-lasting droughts, such as the European continent, climate models indicate a significant increase in drought occurrence probability under the warmest future scenario." @default.
- W4200205370 created "2021-12-31" @default.
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- W4200205370 date "2021-12-02" @default.
- W4200205370 modified "2023-10-12" @default.
- W4200205370 title "Northern Hemisphere drought risk in a warming climate" @default.
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- W4200205370 doi "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00218-2" @default.
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