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- W4200611965 endingPage "1377" @default.
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- W4200611965 abstract "中国大陆强震孕育发生的关键科学问题主要包括从板块到断层应力加载动力学过程、区域强震活动时空演化动力学过程、大陆强震原地复发动力学过程等，上述问题在活动地块理论框架下，基本研究方向可分为周边板块边界动力加载、活动地块划分及其变形机制、活动地块边界带与区域强震演化、大陆型强震原地复发动力学模型。相应地，中国大陆型强震物理预测研究的重点研究内容主要包括：（1）从板块到断层应力的加载过程，明确大陆强震孕育发生的动力来源；（2）基于震源物理模型，研究大陆型强震变形机制，为强震地点和震级预测提供支持，可称之为基于震源物理模型的综合概率预测；（3）大陆型强震复发动力学过程以及强震破裂动力学过程，为时间物理预测提供依据，可称之为强震动力学概率预测；（4）区域断裂系统与强震时空演化，分析区域强震成组时空演化及动力机制，实现区域强震成组活动和单个断层强震的物理预测。本文根据国内外研究进展和我国地震预报业务现状，对我国大陆强震孕育发生的现象或规律进行梳理与总结，尝试描述活动地块理论框架下的地震物理预报工作方向，期望能为我国地震物理预报起到抛砖引玉的作用。" @default.
- W4200611965 created "2021-12-31" @default.
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- W4200611965 date "2021-12-21" @default.
- W4200611965 modified "2023-10-17" @default.
- W4200611965 title "Prospects of earthquake physical forecasting under the framework of active-tectonic block theory" @default.
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- W4200611965 doi "https://doi.org/10.1360/tb-2021-0968" @default.
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