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• W4206543277 abstract "Our study provides substantially robust evidence for the predictive power of financial variables in forecasting the business cycle at a further step. We select several interesting and representative financial variables and reveal that they can predict significant information regarding future equity premiums as well as future macroeconomic activity, which are proxied by comprehensive fresh macroeconomic variables. The predictive power remains stable in out-of-sample estimations and can generate profits in an active market-timing trading strategy in excess of the historical mean forecast strategy. Cochrane provides one of the core interpretations for such forecasts in the theoretical asset pricing framework." @default.
• W4206543277 created "2022-01-25" @default.
• W4206543277 creator A5037698843 @default.
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• W4206543277 date "2022-04-01" @default.
• W4206543277 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W4206543277 title "Further evidence on financial information and economic activity forecasts in the United States" @default.
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• W4206543277 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2022.101647" @default.
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