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- W4210417057 abstract "• IMF programs bisect a dip and recovery in growth rates. • A synthetic control analysis suggests the growth recovery is causal. • Nonparametric effect estimates are hump-shaped, hinting at a liquidity mechanism. • Effects do not vary by program characteristics; are larger for weak governments. Whether, and to what degree, IMF lending succeeds in stabilizing economies remains an open question. Here, a synthetic control analysis of macroeconomic crises with IMF intervention is performed—leveraging the existence of similar crises without intervention—that finds positive recovery effects. In the first five years following a crisis, output differences are, on average, nearly two percent of GDP per year. Consistent with a liquidity channel, effects are hump-shaped and fade in the medium run. An analysis of historical IMF forecasts provides evidence against selection as a spurious driver of this result, suggesting that these positive estimates are indeed causal." @default.
- W4210417057 created "2022-02-08" @default.
- W4210417057 creator A5069854816 @default.
- W4210417057 date "2022-04-01" @default.
- W4210417057 modified "2023-10-02" @default.
- W4210417057 title "Are IMF rescue packages effective? A synthetic control analysis of macroeconomic crises" @default.
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- W4210417057 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.02.002" @default.
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