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• W4210553074 abstract "Abstract We study aggregate uncertainty and its linear and nonlinear impact on real and financial markets. By distinguishing between four general notions of aggregate uncertainty (good-expected, bad-expected, good-unexpected, bad-unexpected) within a simple, common framework, we show that it is bad-unexpected uncertainty shocks that generate a negative reaction of economic variables (such as investment and consumption) and asset prices. Our results help to elucidate the real, complex nature of uncertainty, which can be both a backward- or forward-looking expected or unexpected event, with markedly different consequences for the economy. We also document nonlinearities in the propagation of uncertainty to both real and financial markets, which calls for the close monitoring of the evolution of uncertainty so as to help mitigate the adverse effects of its occurrence." @default.
• W4210553074 created "2022-02-08" @default.
• W4210553074 creator A5036625748 @default.
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• W4210553074 date "2022-02-02" @default.
• W4210553074 modified "2023-10-15" @default.
• W4210553074 title "Expected, unexpected, good and bad aggregate uncertainty" @default.
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• W4210553074 doi "https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2020-0127" @default.
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