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- W4210718560 abstract "This study attempts to identify uncertainty in the long-term rate of interest based on the controversial interest-rate theories of Keynes and Kalecki. While Keynes stated that the future of the rate of interest is uncertain because it is numerically incalculable, Kalecki was convinced that it could be predicted. The theories are empirically tested using GARCH-in-mean (MGARCH) models without and with restrictions assigned to six globally leading financial markets. The obtained results support Keynes’s case: the long-term rate of interest is a non-ergodic financial phenomenon. Analyses of the relation between the interest rate and macroeconomic variables without interest uncertainty are thus seriously incomplete." @default.
- W4210718560 created "2022-02-08" @default.
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- W4210718560 date "2022-01-26" @default.
- W4210718560 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
- W4210718560 title "Keynes vs Kalecki: risk and uncertainty in their theories of the rate of interest" @default.
- W4210718560 doi "https://doi.org/10.4337/roke.2022.01.03" @default.
- W4210718560 hasPublicationYear "2022" @default.
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