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- W4210752824 abstract "This paper attempts to measure the value of unrecorded economic activity in South Africa. The value of unrecorded activity is inferred from the quantity of notes in circulation. It is observed that the ratio of notes in circulation to official measures of gross domestic product and expenditure has increased significantly in recent years. This development has coincided with greater freedoms for black South Africans to migrate to the urban areas of South Africa and to engage in economic activity there. Differences between the actual demand for notes and predictions of such demands, derived from models of the demand for notes, as estimated by regression analysis for the period 1950 to 1980, are used to infer the volume of unrecorded activity. Annual data is applied.The models used to estimate the demand for notes are a mixture of uni-variate time series models, combined with bank debits, interest rates and inflation as other independent variables. The time series models provide very good fits. The addition of the other independent variables add little explanatory power.Consideration is also given to the reference of possible changes in the demand for notes by the banking system.Both on theoretical and empirical grounds it is shown that much of the increase in the demand for notes unrecorded outside rather than inside the banking system." @default.
- W4210752824 created "2022-02-08" @default.
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- W4210752824 date "1989-03-31" @default.
- W4210752824 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W4210752824 title "Estimating the Value of Unrecorded Economic Activity in South Africa" @default.
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- W4210752824 doi "https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.1989.12128959" @default.
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