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• W4214906640 abstract "Ranking Exploration Opportunities - Some New Approaches C.R.K. Moore; C.R.K. Moore Arco International Oil and Gas Company Search for other works by this author on: This Site Google Scholar J.W. Tucker J.W. Tucker Arco International Oil and Gas Company Search for other works by this author on: This Site Google Scholar Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, Dallas, Texas, March 1995. Paper Number: SPE-30054-MS https://doi.org/10.2118/30054-MS Published: March 26 1995 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Twitter LinkedIn Get Permissions Search Site Citation Moore, C.R.K., and J.W. Tucker. Ranking Exploration Opportunities - Some New Approaches. Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, Dallas, Texas, March 1995. doi: https://doi.org/10.2118/30054-MS Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Reference Manager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex Search Dropdown Menu nav search search input Search input auto suggest search filter All ContentAll ProceedingsSociety of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium Search Advanced Search AbstractSome new approaches to ranking exploration ventures are suggested. Risk capacity, reflecting the break-even odds of failure for any venture, provides a useful tool. The amount by which the perceived risk (chance factor) exceeds the inverse of risk capacity is a good measure of the quality of a venture. We define this dimensionless fraction Surplus Risk Factor (SRF) or, informally, Comfort. Expected value may be restated as the product of SRF and the present value of a discovery. Plotted against each other, these provide a useful basis for a value order plot.Two other useful yardsticks are Exploration Cost Efficiency, the expected present value generated by a dollar of discounted exploration expenditure, and Predicted Finding Cost, based on the risk-weighted reserves.IntroductionTraditional criteria for ranking exploration prospects have included expected net present value, investment efficiency and, to a lesser extent, rate of return. These are derived from three distinct estimates or predictions: the cash flow expected from the exploration success, the cost of exploration failure, and the probability of exploration success. Visual representations of the relative economic merits of different prospects (Value Order Plots) provide a useful tool to help manage an exploration portfolio. These generally show simple measures of risk and reward.We have developed some additional measures and displays whose purpose is two-fold. First, the perceived quality of a prospect depends critically on the estimated probability of commercial success (Economic Chance Factor). This estimate is subjective, hides considerable uncertainty, and cannot be subsequently validated by the results from a single prospect.P. 209 Keywords: enpv, investment efficiency, project economics, risk capacity, project valuation, spe 30054, efficiency, surplus risk factor, chance factor, exploration cost Subjects: Asset and Portfolio Management, Project economics/valuation This content is only available via PDF. 1995. Society of Petroleum Engineers You can access this article if you purchase or spend a download." @default.
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