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- W4220765513 abstract "As returns from US equities fluctuate around a stable average and as the ratio of net worth to market capitalization is mean reverting, the stock market’s value can be calculated using two different methods, known as CAPE and <italic>q</italic>. The results must of course agree and, as they do, and are derived from different data series they reinforce each other’s validity. The accuracy of the two approaches can then be tested using hindsight by comparing past values of the stock market derived from its historic returns with the values shown by CAPE and <italic>q</italic>. Both methods of valuation are robust when tested with R<sup>2</sup> correlations of 0.80 for <italic>q</italic> and 0.52 for CAPE. The long-term mean-reverting real return can then be calculated and it is around 6.7 per cent. The comparison of returns with the average PEs and pay-out ratios with dividend growth shows that companies habitually overstate their earnings." @default.
- W4220765513 created "2022-04-03" @default.
- W4220765513 creator A5041859274 @default.
- W4220765513 date "2022-03-10" @default.
- W4220765513 modified "2023-09-30" @default.
- W4220765513 title "Valuing the US Stock Market" @default.
- W4220765513 doi "https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780192847096.003.0015" @default.
- W4220765513 hasPublicationYear "2022" @default.
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