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• W4220781936 abstract "The development of methods for individual identification in wild species and the refinement of Capture-Mark-Recapture (CMR) models during the past decades has greatly improved the assessment of population demographic rates to answer ecological and conservation questions. In particular, multi-state models, with their flexibility for the analysis of complex study systems, have become popular in the ecological community. We have addressed here the issue of mark loss and the often associated recycling of remarked individuals, which remains to be further explored in the context of the increasing use of these models. To explore this knowledge gap we used a wide range of simulation scenarios reflecting frequently encountered real case studies inspired from the survival rates of 700 vertebrates' species. We estimated the effects of mark loss and recycled individuals on parameter estimates using a multi-state, Arnason-Schwartz (AS), modelling framework. We explored parameter bias through simulations of a metapopulation system with different capture and survival rates. We also illustrated how mark loss can be easily estimated and accounted for using an empirical long-term (10 years) CMR dataset of bats, individually identified using both Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tag technology as marks that can be lost, and multi-locus genotypes as 'permanent marks'. The results from our simulated scenarios demonstrated that the occurrence of bias and the parameters concerned were highly dependent on the study system, and no general rules predicting bias could be established a priori. The model structure and the interdependency among parameters make it challenging to predict how bias could affect estimates. Our results highlight the need to assess the effect of mark loss when using AS models. Ignoring such violations of model assumptions can have important implications for ecological inferences and conservation policies. In general, the use of permanent marks (e.g. genotype), should always be preferred when modelling population dynamics. If not possible, an alternative is to combine two independent types of temporary marks (e.g. PIT tags, bands). Analysis of our empirical dataset on Myotis myotis bats has shown that tag loss is higher in juveniles than in adults during the first year after tagging. The tag loss rate can be reduced from 28% to 19% in juveniles by using surgical glue to close the injection hole, while it did not change the tag loss rate in adults (~10%). Main bias appeared in survival rate in our metapopulation system, with up to 20% of underestimation of survival rate if tag loss is not accounted for." @default.
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• W4220781936 date "2022-03-27" @default.
• W4220781936 modified "2023-10-01" @default.
• W4220781936 title "Mark loss can strongly bias demographic rates in multi-state models: a case study with simulated and empirical datasets" @default.
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• W4220781936 doi "https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.03.25.485763" @default.
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