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- W4220807960 abstract "Abstract Background As a response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the United Nations Security Council passed resolution S/RES2532 (2020), requesting the cessation of hostilities. Despite initiatives for a ceasefire, descriptive evidence suggests that both conflict and violent events have remained unabated—and, in some cases, escalated during the first months of the pandemic. This study incorporates a longer time frame than previous studies to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on violent and non-violent political events—including health system-related violence—in Libya, which has been experiencing a protracted conflict since 2014. Methods We analyze data on violent and non-violent political events that took place from 1 January 2015 to 31 August 2021 in Libya. The study conducts descriptive statistics on event counts, using a Chi-square test and a Kruskal-Wallis H test. We use an interrupted time series analysis to evaluate the impact of the pandemic—both short and long term—on the incidence of violent and non-violent political events in Libya. Results We find a reduction of approximately 21 battles ( p < 0.001) during only the first month of the pandemic. However, overall, throughout the pandemic, there was an increase of roughly one battle per month ( p < 0.001). The pandemic is associated with a reduction in the number of riots (− 0.29, p < 0.05) and strategic developments (− 0.72, p < 0.05). In the first year of the pandemic, the number of overall fatalities per month dropped significantly (− 31.67, p < 0.05). Nevertheless, during the second year of the pandemic, this trend reverted to an increase of approximately 42 fatalities per month ( p < 0.05). The violence that affected healthcare workers decreased during the first year of the pandemic ( p < 0.001), but by the second year the reduction in healthcare worker–related violence had dissipated. Conclusions There is an immediate decline in battles and fatalities during the earlier period of the pandemic; however, these declines do not last long. This pattern is a troubling one, particularly since it is observed while there is an international agreement for a ceasefire in place and a specific peace agreement occurring in Libya." @default.
- W4220807960 created "2022-04-03" @default.
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- W4220807960 date "2022-03-16" @default.
- W4220807960 modified "2023-09-29" @default.
- W4220807960 title "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Conflict and Health System–Related Violent Events in Libya: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis" @default.
- W4220807960 doi "https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1440041/v1" @default.
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