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• W4220985225 abstract "Earth and Space Science Open Archive This work has been accepted for publication in Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. Version of RecordESSOAr is a venue for early communication or feedback before peer review. Data may be preliminary. Learn more about preprints. preprintOpen AccessYou are viewing the latest version by default [v4]Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 ExperimentAuthorsTravis AllenO'BrieniDMichael FWehneriDAshley E.PayneiDChristine AShieldsiDJonathan J.RutziDL. RubyLeungF. MartinRalphAllison B.Marquardt CollowIrinaGorodetskayaBinGuanJuan ManuelLoraElizabethMcClennyiDKyle M.NardiiDAlexandre M.RamosiDRicardoToméiDChandanSarangiEric JaySheareriDPaulUllrichiDColin M.ZarzyckiiDBurlenLoringiDHuanpingHuangiDHéctor AlejandroInda DíaziDAlan M.RhoadesiDYangZhouiDSee all authors Travis Allen O'BrieniDCorresponding Author• Submitting AuthorIndiana University BloomingtoniDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6643-1175view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressMichael F WehneriDLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (DOE)iDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5991-0082view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressAshley E. PayneiDUniversity of Michigan-Ann ArboriDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3967-7994view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressChristine A ShieldsiDNational Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)iDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4481-1377view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressJonathan J. RutziDNational Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationiDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4337-0071view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressL. Ruby LeungPNNLview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressF. Martin RalphNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressAllison B. Marquardt CollowUniversities Space Research Association and NASA/GSFCview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressIrina GorodetskayaCentre for Environmental and Marine Studies, Dept. of Physics, University of Aveiro, Portugalview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressBin GuanUniversity of California Los Angelesview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressJuan Manuel LoraYale Universityview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressElizabeth McClennyiDUniversity of California, DavisiDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3162-345Xview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressKyle M. NardiiDPenn State UniversityiDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1831-2198view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressAlexandre M. RamosiDInstituto Dom LuiziDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3129-7233view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressRicardo ToméiDInstituto Dom LuiziDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0657-7057view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressChandan SarangiIIT Madrasview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressEric Jay SheareriDUniversity of California, IrvineiDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5997-2806view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressPaul UllrichiDUniversity of California DavisiDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4118-4590view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressColin M. ZarzyckiiDPennsylvania State UniversityiDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5731-042Xview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressBurlen LoringiDLawrence Berkeley LabiDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4678-8142view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressHuanping HuangiDLawrence Berkeley National LabiDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6153-6357view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressHéctor Alejandro Inda DíaziDUniversity of California DavisiDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1960-6873view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressAlan M. RhoadesiDLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryiDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3723-2422view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressYang ZhouiDLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryiDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2835-4081view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressPublished Online:Fri, 11 Mar 2022DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10504170.4Version of Record:https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD036013Download PDFDownload PDFCiteAbout ToolsAdd to FavoritesTrack Citations ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code AbstractThe Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes the ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi-model ensembles. We show that AR statistics from a given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with the MERRA-2 reanalysis. In CMIP5/6 future simulations, most ARDTs project a global increase in AR frequency, counts, and sizes, especially along the western coastlines of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We find that the choice of ARDT is the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in projected AR frequency when compared with model choice. These results imply that new projects investigating future changes in ARs should explicitly consider ARDT uncertainty as a core part of the experimental design. BackCite This WorkClose modalCopy TextPick your preferred file format according to your citation manager software.BibTexRIS (ProCite, Reference Manager)EndNoteRefWorksCancelDownload SupplementalRelatedDetailsCitations0This work hasn’t been cited yet.Be the first to cite it.Cite Metrics15Views15Downloads0Citations Submission History[v1] Fri, 4 Sep 2020 06:24:52 (43.1 MB)[v2] Fri, 8 Oct 2021 14:34:44 (3.9 MB)[v3] Wed, 15 Dec 2021 04:51:45 (36.9 MB)[v4] Fri, 11 Mar 2022 08:57:22 (3.7 MB)TopicsClimatology (Global Change), Atmospheric SciencesFundersLicenseYou are free to:Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or formatAdapt — remix, transform, and build upon the materialThis license is acceptable for Free Cultural Works.The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms. Under the following terms:Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.Learn more" @default.
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• W4220985225 title "Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment" @default.
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