FRINK Linked Data Fragments server

Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W4221017131> ?p ?o ?g. }

• W4221017131 abstract "&lt;p&gt;Rainfall forecasts over northern tropical Africa are potentially beneficial for a wide range of applications from agriculture to health, but current numerical weather prediction models have very limited skill over this region, even in a probabilistic sense. A recent study by Vogel et al. (2021, DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091022) has demonstrated for the summer monsoon season July-September that even a relatively simple statistical forecast model based on past time-space rank correlations in rainfall estimates from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission can outperform numerical models.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Here we extend the correlation part of the Vogel et al. study in various ways: (a) we use time lags up to the previous three days, (b) we use a larger geographic area spanning several thousand kilometers over northern tropical Africa and the Atlantic Ocean, (c) we consider five different seasons per year, (d) we use the more recent satellite-based globally gridded Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement final-version product from 2001&amp;#8211;2019, and (e) we link the detected correlation patterns to known meteorological features such as African Easterly waves.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Our results show that significant correlations can be found for all lags from one to three days in all seasons along the fringes of the climatological rainbelt over tropical Africa. We attribute this to the large-scale drivers that trigger and organize rainfall, which in turn causes coherent spatio-temporal anomalies. On the contrary, low correlations are observed within the rainbelt at all time lags, indicating the lack of a single dominant forcing, high stochasticity, or both. To quantify the coherence of the forcings identified in each season, we introduce a new metric called &lt;em&gt;coherence-factor.&lt;/em&gt; It is computed at every grid-point and summarizes the extent to which the lagged correlations reflect a propagation with a constant phase speed and direction. High values of the coherence-factor combined with healthy levels of correlations over the three days considered indicate physically interpretable, stable relationships that potentially translate into high potential predictability. For example, high coherence over the Sahel region in the July-September season shows the dominance of AEWs to trigger and organize rainfall. In contrast, the December-February season shows a very different picture with high coherence only over the equatorial oceanic region. The May&amp;#8211;June season closely resembles July&amp;#8211;September, indicating the early stages of AEWs activity. March&amp;#8211;April and October&amp;#8211;November seasons show features characteristic of those they are transitioning between.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In the future, the coherent features identified in this study will be used as predictors for testing several statistical and hybrid (i.e., additionally including predictors from numerical weather prediction) models in every season to forecast rainfall over northern tropical Africa.&lt;/p&gt;" @default.
• W4221017131 created "2022-04-03" @default.
• W4221017131 creator A5029876178 @default.
• W4221017131 creator A5032366465 @default.
• W4221017131 creator A5032765663 @default.
• W4221017131 date "2022-03-27" @default.
• W4221017131 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
• W4221017131 title "How coherent is rainfall in northern tropical Africa in time and space &#8211; and why?" @default.
• W4221017131 doi "https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2427" @default.
• W4221017131 hasPublicationYear "2022" @default.
• W4221017131 type Work @default.
• W4221017131 citedByCount "0" @default.
• W4221017131 crossrefType "posted-content" @default.
• W4221017131 hasAuthorship W4221017131A5029876178 @default.
• W4221017131 hasAuthorship W4221017131A5032366465 @default.
• W4221017131 hasAuthorship W4221017131A5032765663 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConcept C107054158 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConcept C118518473 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConcept C121332964 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConcept C127313418 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConcept C1276947 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConcept C134097258 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConcept C136996986 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConcept C153294291 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConcept C159985019 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConcept C166957645 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConcept C192562407 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConcept C19269812 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConcept C204323151 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConcept C205649164 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConcept C2779547961 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConcept C39432304 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConcept C49204034 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConcept C52322663 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConcept C58640448 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConceptScore W4221017131C107054158 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConceptScore W4221017131C118518473 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConceptScore W4221017131C121332964 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConceptScore W4221017131C127313418 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConceptScore W4221017131C1276947 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConceptScore W4221017131C134097258 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConceptScore W4221017131C136996986 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConceptScore W4221017131C153294291 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConceptScore W4221017131C159985019 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConceptScore W4221017131C166957645 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConceptScore W4221017131C192562407 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConceptScore W4221017131C19269812 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConceptScore W4221017131C204323151 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConceptScore W4221017131C205649164 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConceptScore W4221017131C2779547961 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConceptScore W4221017131C39432304 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConceptScore W4221017131C49204034 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConceptScore W4221017131C52322663 @default.
• W4221017131 hasConceptScore W4221017131C58640448 @default.
• W4221017131 hasLocation W42210171311 @default.
• W4221017131 hasOpenAccess W4221017131 @default.
• W4221017131 hasPrimaryLocation W42210171311 @default.
• W4221017131 hasRelatedWork W2051008731 @default.
• W4221017131 hasRelatedWork W2074075405 @default.
• W4221017131 hasRelatedWork W2146542051 @default.
• W4221017131 hasRelatedWork W2183783417 @default.
• W4221017131 hasRelatedWork W2383156644 @default.
• W4221017131 hasRelatedWork W2743594141 @default.
• W4221017131 hasRelatedWork W2895557247 @default.
• W4221017131 hasRelatedWork W3099516916 @default.
• W4221017131 hasRelatedWork W3204698077 @default.
• W4221017131 hasRelatedWork W4283755713 @default.
• W4221017131 isParatext "false" @default.
• W4221017131 isRetracted "false" @default.
• W4221017131 workType "article" @default.