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• W4224266191 abstract "Abstract Emission scenarios represent a backbone in future climate change analyzes1–3, informing policy responses and designs4–8. Despite increasing scientific publications and improved scenario quality9, this has not been translated into sufficient policy actions10,11. Finalizing the 6th assessment cycle of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), what is needed to enhance the policymaker relevance of scenario work for the next one? The precise role of emission scenarios in policymaking is not explicitly explored in the literature, and the policymakers' perspectives and needs are not expressed. We found, via a survey distributed to national focal points of the 25th Conference of the Parties (COP25) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), a gap between industrialized (Annex-I) and least, semi, and newly industrializing (non-Annex-I) countries on policymakers’ knowledge and capacities in using scenarios and applying them meaningfully to policymaking. Overall, policymakers express a divide between how scenarios have been communicated and how they could be presented to increase their policy actionability. Our results demonstrate that two (contrasting) needs are expressed: more simple scenario communication and more national detail. Furthermore, policymakers focus on understanding and using the scenario tools for negotiations and national policy, contrasting the scientific focus on the quality of assumptions, processes, approaches, and methods12–14. For the upcoming COP27 and successive COPs, the scientific community developing scenarios has three crucial gaps to close to increase the scenarios’ relevance for policy designs. Provide national scenarios in non-Annex-I, improving policy relevance via a more detailed understanding of policymaker needs and objectives, and closing the knowledge gaps between the non-Annex-I and Annex-I regions. This also translates into increasing policy-relevant research in locations outside the Annex-I regions and setting up scenario training and modeling institutions. A precondition for effective scenario use is that the policymaking community clearly communicates its evolving goals and priorities to the scientific community." @default.
• W4224266191 created "2022-04-26" @default.
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• W4224266191 date "2022-04-22" @default.
• W4224266191 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
• W4224266191 title "The fourth pillar of inequality? Different levels of policymakers’ scientific scenario knowledge widen the gap between World regions" @default.
• W4224266191 doi "https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1562018/v1" @default.
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