FRINK Linked Data Fragments server

Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W4230792007> ?p ?o ?g. }

• W4230792007 endingPage "138" @default.
• W4230792007 startingPage "105" @default.
• W4230792007 abstract "In the present work, eight forecasting techniques are evaluated on the basis of their efficiency to model and provide accurate operational forecasts of the annual commercial landings of 16 species or groups of species in the Hellenic (Greek) marine waters. The development of operational forecasts was based on the following four general categories of forecasting techniques: (a) deterministic simple or multiple regression models incorporating different exogenous variables (time-varying regression, TV; multiple regression models incorporating time, fishing effort, wholesale value of catch and climatic variables, MREG); (b) univariate time series models (Brown's one parameter exponential smoothing, BES; Holt's two parameter exponential smoothing, HES; and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)); (c) multivariate time series techniques (harmonic regression, HREG; dynamic regression, DREG; and vector autoregressions, VAR); and (d) the ‘biological’ exponential surplus-yield model, FOX. Fits (for 1964–1987) and forecasts (for 1988–1989) obtained by the different models were compared with each other and with those of a naive method (NM) and an empirical one (i.e. combination of forecasts, EMP) using 32 different measures of accuracy. The results revealed that HREG and MREG models outperformed, in terms of fitting accuracy, the remaining eight models (NM, TV, BES, HES, FOX, ARIMA, VAR and EMP). They were both characterised by: (a) higher accuracy in terms of all, or most, standard and relative statistical measures; (b) unbiased fits; (c) much better performance than NM; (d) transformed errors which were essentially white noise. In addition, HREG and MREG models: (e) explained from 79% to 97% of the variability of 13 transformed annual catches and from 31% to 61% for the remaining ones; (f) produced fits with MAPE values ranging from 3.4% to 21.2%; (g) in all, or most cases, predicted the between year variations during the fitting period, 1964–1987. In terms of forecasting performance, however, not a single best approach was found for the 16 annual catches. In general, BES and, to a lesser extent, HES, NM (which actually is an ARIMA (0,1,0)), EMP and HREG models were among the best performers more often, produced the worst forecasts more rarely and were generally characterised by the higher number of stable forecasts and of forecasts with MAPE <20% and <10%. TV was also efficient for some annual series. Conversely, the poorest performers (FOX, MREG and ARIMA) rarely did better than average. The biological FOX models produced the least accurate and biased fits, bad forecasts (> 34.1%) in two out of four cases, and were characterised by transformed errors that were significantly (P < 0.05) autocorrelated. Some of the empirical models also had interesting explanations. Hence, the univariate ARIMA and multivariate VAR time series models predicted persistence of catches. The multivariate VAR and HREG time series models also predicted cycles in the variability of the catches with periods of 2–3 years. Moreover, FOX and MREG models indicated that fishing effort, wholesale value of catch and climate may, in a synergetic fashion, affect long-term trends and short-term variation in the catches of, at least, some species (or groups of species). Finally, MREG and VAR models predicted that variability and replacement of anchovy by sardine catches are not due to chance, and wind activity over the northern Aegean Sea may act as a forcing function." @default.
• W4230792007 created "2022-05-11" @default.
• W4230792007 creator A5055056022 @default.
• W4230792007 creator A5055910119 @default.
• W4230792007 date "1996-02-01" @default.
• W4230792007 modified "2023-10-17" @default.
• W4230792007 title "Modelling and forecasting annual fisheries catches: comparison of regression, univariate and multivariate time series methods" @default.
• W4230792007 cites W1967439750 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2001190577 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2012589368 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2013156698 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2020506297 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2022808049 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2042776042 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2051978062 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2052667199 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2060520228 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2061377831 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2062198869 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2066894365 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2068645980 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2076563826 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2084671597 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2093230975 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2108627621 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2125211992 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2134705291 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2137601485 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2318823087 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2327802607 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W2798015800 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W3122455546 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W4214937441 @default.
• W4230792007 cites W4254232747 @default.
• W4230792007 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-7836(95)00389-4" @default.
• W4230792007 hasPublicationYear "1996" @default.
• W4230792007 type Work @default.
• W4230792007 citedByCount "47" @default.
• W4230792007 countsByYear W42307920072013 @default.
• W4230792007 countsByYear W42307920072014 @default.
• W4230792007 countsByYear W42307920072015 @default.
• W4230792007 countsByYear W42307920072016 @default.
• W4230792007 countsByYear W42307920072018 @default.
• W4230792007 countsByYear W42307920072019 @default.
• W4230792007 countsByYear W42307920072020 @default.
• W4230792007 countsByYear W42307920072021 @default.
• W4230792007 countsByYear W42307920072022 @default.
• W4230792007 countsByYear W42307920072023 @default.
• W4230792007 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
• W4230792007 hasAuthorship W4230792007A5055056022 @default.
• W4230792007 hasAuthorship W4230792007A5055910119 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConcept C105795698 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConcept C133710760 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConcept C149782125 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConcept C151406439 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConcept C152877465 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConcept C159877910 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConcept C161584116 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConcept C199163554 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConcept C24338571 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConcept C33923547 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConcept C48921125 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConcept C83546350 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConceptScore W4230792007C105795698 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConceptScore W4230792007C133710760 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConceptScore W4230792007C149782125 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConceptScore W4230792007C151406439 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConceptScore W4230792007C152877465 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConceptScore W4230792007C159877910 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConceptScore W4230792007C161584116 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConceptScore W4230792007C199163554 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConceptScore W4230792007C24338571 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConceptScore W4230792007C33923547 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConceptScore W4230792007C48921125 @default.
• W4230792007 hasConceptScore W4230792007C83546350 @default.
• W4230792007 hasIssue "2" @default.
• W4230792007 hasLocation W42307920071 @default.
• W4230792007 hasOpenAccess W4230792007 @default.
• W4230792007 hasPrimaryLocation W42307920071 @default.
• W4230792007 hasRelatedWork W2024558842 @default.
• W4230792007 hasRelatedWork W2048417628 @default.
• W4230792007 hasRelatedWork W2955496313 @default.
• W4230792007 hasRelatedWork W3097024643 @default.
• W4230792007 hasRelatedWork W3124446684 @default.
• W4230792007 hasRelatedWork W3215481666 @default.
• W4230792007 hasRelatedWork W4210402713 @default.
• W4230792007 hasRelatedWork W4220732081 @default.
• W4230792007 hasRelatedWork W4220924527 @default.
• W4230792007 hasRelatedWork W4387220233 @default.
• W4230792007 hasVolume "25" @default.
• W4230792007 isParatext "false" @default.
• W4230792007 isRetracted "false" @default.
• W4230792007 workType "article" @default.