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• W4234657966 abstract "Abstract. The objective of this paper is to present a new strategy for assessing climate impacts on low flows and droughts. The strategy is termed a three-pillar approach as it combines different sources of information. The first pillar, trend extrapolation, exploits the temporal patterns of observed low flows and extends them into the future. The second pillar, rainfall–runoff projections uses precipitation and temperature scenarios from climate models as an input to rainfall–runoff models to project future low flows. The third pillar, stochastic projections, exploits the temporal patterns of observed precipitation and air temperature and extends them into the future to drive rainfall–runoff projections. These pieces of information are combined by expert judgement based on a synoptic view of data and model outputs, taking the respective uncertainties of the methods into account. The viability of the approach is demonstrated for four example catchments from Austria that represent typical climate conditions in Central Europe. The projections differ in terms of their signs and magnitudes. The degree to which the methods agree depends on the regional climate and the dominant low flow seasonality. In the Alpine region where winter low flows dominate, trend projections and climate scenarios yield consistent projections of increasing low flows, although of different magnitudes. In the region north of the Alps, consistently small changes are projected by all methods. In the regions in the South and Southeast, more pronounced and mostly decreasing trends are projected but there is disagreement in the magnitudes of the projected changes. These results suggest that conclusions drawn from only one pillar of information would be highly uncertain. The three-pillar approach offers a systematic framework of combining different sources of information aiming at more robust projections than obtained from each pillar alone." @default.
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• W4234657966 date "2015-12-15" @default.
• W4234657966 modified "2023-10-12" @default.
• W4234657966 title "A three-pillar approach to assessing climate impacts on low flows" @default.
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• W4234657966 doi "https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-13069-2015" @default.
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