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- W4235097922 abstract "This chapter considers the relationship between forward and reverse inference, with an eye toward the question of when reverse inferences are in error. It highlights the risks of reverse inference with examples from social psychology and cognitive neuroscience, and also considers the cases in which the logical problems of reverse inference take on a moral dimension. Bayes’ Theorem, in its beauty and simplicity, has guided and haunted psychologists’ attempts to understand everyday irrationality and rationalize their own reverse inferences. The confusion of correlation with causation is a reverse inference problem. Psychologists design experiments to make forward causal inferences. Although a movement to reform psychological statistics is underway, experimental psychologists still rely on null hypothesis significance testing to support forward inferences at the conceptual level. Social perceivers are often interested in the psychological properties or states of others, but cannot observe them directly." @default.
- W4235097922 created "2022-05-12" @default.
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- W4235097922 date "2017-02-03" @default.
- W4235097922 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
- W4235097922 title "Reverse Inference" @default.
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- W4235097922 doi "https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119095910.ch7" @default.
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