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- W4239750079 abstract "This chapter presents a new approach to estimating time variation in the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). A major problem with Phillips curve-based estimates is that the complicated relationship between inflation, its own lags, supply shocks, and unemployment and its lags makes it possible to explain any particular incidence of high or low inflation a number of different ways. This problem is the root cause of both the lack of robust results and the large confidence intervals around NAIRU estimates derived from Phillips curve estimates. The chapter explores an alternative source of information about time variation in the NAIRU. The first section provides a brief introduction to the literature on the Beveridge curve and on how it has shifted over time. The second section develops a theory linking shifts in the Beveridge curve to shifts in the NAIRU. The third section presents estimates of the Beveridge curve model developed in the second section. The fourth section presents estimates of a linearized version of the model using a Kalman filter. Estimates of a restricted version of the model suggest that the information from the Beveridge curve adds significantly to the explanatory power of the Phillips curve. Two commentaries on the preceding study are also provided at the end of the chapter." @default.
- W4239750079 created "2022-05-12" @default.
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- W4239750079 date "2009-09-11" @default.
- W4239750079 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W4239750079 title "A New Method for Estimating Time Variation in the NAIRU" @default.
- W4239750079 doi "https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/9780262013635.003.0006" @default.
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