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- W4243599131 abstract "Abstract In this study, different scenarios have been used to project Iran’s chance to achieve SDG 3.4. Unconditional Probability of Dying (UPOD) through the Bayesian model averaging for four major categories of NCDs was projected on the basis of Death Registry System data at the national and sub-national levels. The prevalence of the risk factors was projected by 2030 based on STEPs data and additional studies. Assuming that the global reduction in risk factors proposed by WHO is performed in Iran, UPOD was projected again and then the possibility of achieving the target was estimated. If the current trend continues, the UPOD will be reduced from 17.5 % (95% UI: 16.3–19.2) in 2010 and 14.7% (13.3–16.2) in 2015 to 10.8% (7.9–14.3) in 2030. If the risk factors are reduced to the global target level, 68236 deaths in 2010 and 54418 deaths in 2015 baselines will be avoided. By 2030, the UPOD after subtracting the avoidable deaths, will be 5.44 (3.51–7.39) in 2010 and 6.55 (5.00- 8.13) in 2015 baselines. This way some provinces will meet SDG 3.4. If the current trend continues, Iran will and will not achieve the SDG 3.4 in 2010 and 2015 baselines, respectively. However, if the global target set for reducing risk factors is achieved, Iran will meet all expectations in SDG 3.4 except in Asthma and COPD. Therefore, effective interventions are recommended to be designed and followed to reduce Asthma and COPD." @default.
- W4243599131 created "2022-05-12" @default.
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- W4243599131 date "2021-05-05" @default.
- W4243599131 modified "2023-10-17" @default.
- W4243599131 title "Will Iran achieve the SDG 3.4 at national and sub- national levels?" @default.
- W4243599131 doi "https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-479910/v1" @default.
- W4243599131 hasPublicationYear "2021" @default.
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