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- W4244011314 abstract "Subject The recent fall in the pound. Significance The pound was trading at 1.22 dollars in European morning spot trade, barely up from the 1.18 dollars it had fallen to during 'flash crash' on October 7. Signs that the government is prioritising immigration curbs over access to the single market have been perceived as an anti-business tilt towards a 'hard Brexit', increasing the odds of a more severe deterioration in sentiment towards UK assets. The pound has lost 20% against the dollar since the referendum, and shorting of the pound has surged. This could spark capital outflows, raising fears about funding the current account deficit. Impacts Financial contagion from Brexit has been negligible, but this could reverse, particularly if combined with other euro-area risks. The strong dollar is putting pressure on other major currencies, notably the yen, keeping concerns about policy effectiveness high. Emergency rate hikes are unlikely as they could prompt panic, as well as holding back investment, which is already subdued. Firms may struggle to pass on the higher costs to consumers, damaging corporate profits but shielding retail sales. The pound could reverse trend and rally if the Brexit negotiations prove 'softer' than expected and sentiment improves towards UK assets." @default.
- W4244011314 created "2022-05-12" @default.
- W4244011314 date "2016-10-14" @default.
- W4244011314 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W4244011314 title "Sterling on a slippery and unknown slope to Brexit" @default.
- W4244011314 doi "https://doi.org/10.1108/oxan-db214290" @default.
- W4244011314 hasPublicationYear "2016" @default.
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