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- W4245287128 abstract "Abstract. To assess the skill of predictions of the seasonal-to-interannual detrended sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean (SIEAO) and to clarify the underlying physical processes, we conducted ensemble hindcasts, started on January 1st, April 1st, July 1st, and October 1st for each year from 1980 to 2011, for lead times of up three years, using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) version 5 initialized with the observed atmosphere and ocean anomalies and sea ice concentration. Significant skill is found for the winter months: the December SIEAO can be predicted up to 1 year ahead. This skill is attributed to the subsurface ocean heat content originating in the North Atlantic. The subsurface water flows into the Barents Sea from spring to fall and emerges at the surface in winter by vertical mixing, and eventually affects the sea ice variability there. Meanwhile, the September SIEAO predictions are skillful for lead times of up to 3 months, due to the persistence of sea ice in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian Seas initialized in July, as suggested by previous studies." @default.
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- W4245287128 date "2017-07-14" @default.
- W4245287128 modified "2023-10-17" @default.
- W4245287128 title "Mechanisms influencing seasonal-to-interannual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC" @default.
- W4245287128 doi "https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-122" @default.
- W4245287128 hasPublicationYear "2017" @default.
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