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• W4246333552 abstract "Abstract. The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on the number of large forest fires (over 10 ha fires) and burned area in Finland. For this purpose, we utilized a strong relationship between fire occurrence and the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) during 1996–2014. We used daily data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. Our results also reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase in forest-fire danger. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is more important cause of fires." @default.
• W4246333552 created "2022-05-12" @default.
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• W4246333552 date "2015-08-14" @default.
• W4246333552 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
• W4246333552 title "Risk for large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate" @default.
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• W4246333552 doi "https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-4753-2015" @default.
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