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- W4247064836 abstract "Abstract. This study quantifies the performance of the Croatian meteotsunami early warning system (CMeEWS) composed of a network of air pressure and sea level observations, a high-resolution atmosphere-ocean modelling suite and a stochastic surrogate model. The CMeEWS, which is not operational due to a lack of numerical resources, is used retroactively to reproduce the multiple events observed in the eastern Adriatic between the 11th and 19th of May 2020. It is found that deterministic simulations largely fail to forecast these extreme events at endangered locations along the Croatian cost mostly due to a systematic northwestward shift of the atmospheric disturbances. Additionally, the use of combined ocean and atmospheric model results, instead of atmospheric model results only, is not found to improve the selection of the transects used to extract the atmospheric parameters feeding the stochastic meteotsunami surrogate model. Finally, in operational mode, the stochastic surrogate model would have triggered the warnings for most of the observed events, but also setting off some false alarms. Due to the uncertainties associated with operational modelling of meteotsunamigenic disturbances, the stochastic approach has thus proven to overcome the failures of the deterministic forecasts and should be further developed." @default.
- W4247064836 created "2022-05-12" @default.
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- W4247064836 date "2021-01-05" @default.
- W4247064836 modified "2023-09-30" @default.
- W4247064836 title "Performance of the Adriatic early warning system during the multi-meteotsunami event of 11–19 May 2020: an assessment using energy banners" @default.
- W4247064836 doi "https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-409" @default.
- W4247064836 hasPublicationYear "2021" @default.
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