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- W4253026353 abstract "Large-scale collaborative projects recently demonstrated that several key findings from the social-science literature could not be replicated successfully. Here we assess the extent to which a finding’s replication success relates to its intuitive plausibility. Each of 27 high-profile social science findings was evaluated by 233 people without a PhD in psychology. Results showed that these laypeople predicted replication success with above-chance accuracy (i.e., 59%). In addition, when participants were informed about the strength of evidence from the original studies, this boosted their prediction performance to 67%. We discuss the prediction patterns and apply signal detection theory to disentangle detection ability from response bias. Our study suggests that laypeople’s predictions contain useful information for assessing the probability that a given finding will replicate successfully." @default.
- W4253026353 created "2022-05-12" @default.
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- W4253026353 date "2019-09-25" @default.
- W4253026353 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
- W4253026353 title "Laypeople Can Predict Which Social Science Studies Replicate" @default.
- W4253026353 doi "https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/egw9d" @default.
- W4253026353 hasPublicationYear "2019" @default.
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