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- W4255579898 abstract "A key source of uncertainty in the environmental assessment of emerging technologies is the unpredictable manufacturing, use, and end-of-life pathways a technology can take as it progresses from lab to industrial scale. This uncertainty has sometimes been addressed in life cycle assessment (LCA) by performing scenario analysis. However, the scenario-based approach can be misleading if the probabilities of occurrence of each scenario are not incorporated. It also brings about a practical problem; considering all possible pathways, the number of scenarios can quickly become unmanageable. We present a modelling approach in which all possible pathways are modelled as a single product system with uncertain processes. These processes may or may not be selected once the technology reaches industrial scale according to given probabilities. An uncertainty analysis of such a system provides a single probability distribution for each impact score. This distribution accounts for uncertainty about the product system’s final configuration along with other sources of uncertainty. Furthermore, a global sensitivity analysis can identify whether the future selection of certain pathways over others will be of importance for the variance of the impact score. We illustrate the method with a case study of an emerging technology for front-side metallization of photovoltaic cells." @default.
- W4255579898 created "2022-05-12" @default.
- W4255579898 date "2017-03-01" @default.
- W4255579898 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
- W4255579898 title "Information for Readers" @default.
- W4255579898 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/s0146-2806(17)30020-8" @default.
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