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- W4255777009 abstract "Experts are often used to provide uncertainty distributions in risk analyses. They play an important role when insufficient data exist for quantification, or when the available data or models are conflicting. Multiple steps are required in constructing a successful expert judgment process. These steps include selecting and framing the issues, identifying the experts, deciding upon an organization structure, and possibly combining the distributions from multiple experts. Expert judgments are normally given as probabilities or probability distributions that express the uncertainty about future events or unmeasured quantities. The goodness of probabilistic judgments is measured through calibration and information, which, in turn, can be measured through a scoring rule. Various behavioral and mathematical methods have been proposed for combining the judgments of experts. There is, however, no single method that has emerged as the best." @default.
- W4255777009 created "2022-05-12" @default.
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- W4255777009 date "2014-09-29" @default.
- W4255777009 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
- W4255777009 title "Expert Judgment" @default.
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- W4255777009 doi "https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118445112.stat03603" @default.
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