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- W4280521789 abstract "Given the increasing use of climate projections and multi-model ensemble weighting for a diverse array of applications, this project assesses the sensitivities of climate model weighting, and their resulting ensemble means, to multiple components, such as the weighting schemes, climate variables, or spatial domains of interest. The analysis makes use of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and their statistically downscaled counterparts created with the Localized Canonical Analogs (LOCA) method. This work focuses on historical and projected future mean precipitation and daily high temperatures of the south-central United States. Results suggest that model weights and corresponding weighted projections are highly sensitive to the weighting method as well as to the selected variables and spatial domains. For instance, when estimating model weights based on Louisiana precipitation, the weighted projections show a wetter and cooler south-central domain in the future compared to other weighting schemes. Alternatively, for example, when estimating model weights based on New Mexico temperature, the weighted projections show a drier and warmer south-central domain in the future. However, when considering the entire south-central domain in estimating the model weights, the weighted future projections show a compromise in the precipitation and temperature estimates. If future impact assessments utilize weighting schemes, then our findings suggest that how the weighting scheme is derived and applied to the projections may depend on the needs of an impact assessment or adaptation plan. From the results of our analysis, we summarize our recommendations concerning multi-model ensemble weighting as follows: Weighted ensemble means should be used not only for national and international assessments but also for regional impacts assessments and planning. Multiple strategies for model weighting are employed when feasible, to assure that uncertainties from various sources (e.g., weighting strategy used, domain or variable of interest applied, etc.) are considered. That weighting is derived for individual sub-regions (such as the NCA regions) in addition to what is derived for the continental United States. That domain-specific weighting be derived using both common (e.g. precipitation) and stakeholder-specific (e.g. streamflow) variables to produce relevant analysis for impact assessments and planning." @default.
- W4280521789 created "2022-05-22" @default.
- W4280521789 date "2022-05-17" @default.
- W4280521789 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
- W4280521789 title "Comment on esd-2022-15" @default.
- W4280521789 doi "https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-15-rc2" @default.
- W4280521789 hasPublicationYear "2022" @default.
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