Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W4281714944> ?p ?o ?g. }
- W4281714944 abstract "Abstract Predicting the peak‐season (July–September) tropical cyclones (TCs) in Southeast Asia (SEA) several months ahead remains challenging, related to limited understanding and prediction of the dynamics affecting the variability of SEA TC activity. Here, we introduce a new statistical approach to sequentially identify mutually independent predictors for the occurrence frequency of peak‐season TCs in the South China Sea (SCS) and east of the Philippines (PHL). These predictors, which are identified from the preseason (April‐June) environmental fields, can capture the interannual variability of different clusters of peak‐season TCs, through a cross‐season effect on large‐scale environment that governs TC genesis and track. The physically oriented approach provides a skillful seasonal prediction in the 41‐year period (1979–2019), with r = 0.73 and 0.54 for SCS and PHL TC frequency, respectively. The lower performance for PHL TCs is likely related to the nonstationarity of the cross‐season TC‐environment relationship. We further develop the statistical approach to a hybrid method using the predictors derived from dynamical seasonal forecasts. The hybrid prediction shows a significant skill for both SCS and PHL TCs, for lead times up to four or 5 months ahead, related to the good performance of models for the sea surface temperatures and low‐level winds in the tropics. The statistical and hybrid predictions outperform the dynamical predictions, showing the potential for operational use." @default.
- W4281714944 created "2022-06-13" @default.
- W4281714944 creator A5010853780 @default.
- W4281714944 creator A5022976014 @default.
- W4281714944 creator A5025947355 @default.
- W4281714944 creator A5029306962 @default.
- W4281714944 creator A5043415290 @default.
- W4281714944 creator A5051087841 @default.
- W4281714944 creator A5058575981 @default.
- W4281714944 creator A5074732589 @default.
- W4281714944 creator A5089412149 @default.
- W4281714944 date "2022-06-20" @default.
- W4281714944 modified "2023-09-30" @default.
- W4281714944 title "A New Approach to Skillful Seasonal Prediction of Southeast Asia Tropical Cyclone Occurrence" @default.
- W4281714944 cites W1600513530 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W1645858368 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W1847583935 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W1958652779 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W1975019927 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W1982592840 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W1983357036 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W1987398183 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W1988553520 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W1989379867 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W1993636304 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2000581095 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2002223771 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2006165291 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2008544706 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2020484213 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2025215907 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2026585731 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2028247729 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2029109792 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2037127690 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2064397087 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2073537922 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2075617783 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2090029279 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2097881034 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2110035220 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2111008143 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2111311018 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2113458380 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2118002644 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2121745948 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2124363224 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2126053967 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2131347304 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2132080122 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2133723041 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2141949873 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2148337312 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2149070700 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2150046129 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2152600327 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2159385715 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2160836964 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2161986077 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2177138779 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2179053769 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2180380740 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2192791608 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2212778762 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2218322641 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2226871692 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2294682052 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2294763720 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2345401066 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2404021204 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2610670795 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2614078560 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2747182731 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2770697633 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2779849513 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2780318220 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2783179908 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2790812804 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2797865161 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2811922161 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2892692229 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2895279794 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2908773481 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2913998384 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2943565832 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2944829746 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2946608605 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2953524633 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2958174139 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2974169811 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W2984980571 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W3004771506 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W3021086796 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W3025949386 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W3046131319 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W3081257409 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W3090551613 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W3093157893 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W3124306308 @default.
- W4281714944 cites W3164823147 @default.