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• W4283521116 abstract "Abstract Objective Predicting daily trends in the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) case number is important to support individual decisions in taking preventative measures. This study aims to use COVID-19 case number history, demographic characteristics, and social distancing policies both independently/interdependently to predict the daily trend in the rise or fall of county-level cases. Materials and Methods We extracted 2093 features (5 from the US COVID-19 case number history, 1824 from the demographic characteristics independently/interdependently, and 264 from the social distancing policies independently/interdependently) for 3142 US counties. Using the top selected 200 features, we built 4 machine learning models: Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes, Multi-Layer Perceptron, and Random Forest, along with 4 Ensemble methods: Average, Product, Minimum, and Maximum, and compared their performances. Results The Ensemble Average method had the highest area-under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.692. The top ranked features were all interdependent features. Conclusion The findings of this study suggest the predictive power of diverse features, especially when combined, in predicting county-level trends of COVID-19 cases and can be helpful to individuals in making their daily decisions. Our results may guide future studies to consider more features interdependently from conventionally distinct data sources in county-level predictive models. Our code is available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6332944." @default.
• W4283521116 created "2022-06-27" @default.
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• W4283521116 date "2022-06-25" @default.
• W4283521116 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
• W4283521116 title "Predicting COVID-19 county-level case number trend by combining demographic characteristics and social distancing policies" @default.
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• W4283521116 doi "https://doi.org/10.1093/jamiaopen/ooac056" @default.
• W4283521116 hasPubMedId "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35855422" @default.
• W4283521116 hasPublicationYear "2022" @default.
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