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- W4285275770 abstract "According to a report of Japan’s Ministry of the Environment (2015), the severity and significance of climate change are “very high,” and the urgency is “high” for paddy rice and fruit trees among crop cultivation. In this study, we focused on Japan’s fruit tree production, assessing the impacts of climate change, particularly global warming, on regional economies through changes in Japan’s fruit tree cultivation using a panel data model and a nine regional computable general equilibrium (9SCGE) model and the effects of adaptation technology and tariff reduction as recovery policies to mitigate the influence of climate change using this model. Our study revealed three findings: First, we estimated the panel data model of fruit tree production with climate change variables and demonstrated that the impact of high temperature became larger and production decreased when temperature exceeded a certain point, except in Hokkaido. Second, we constructed the 9SCGE model by combining the nine interregional social accounting matrix and the estimation results of the panel data model and conducted three simulated scenarios of global warming without adaptation technology, including the future temperature reaching the predicted maximum, mean, and minimum values. These simulation results revealed that global warming has different impacts on each region and results in regional economic disparities. For example, global warming has a positive impact on regional economies in Hokkaido, Tohoku, and Okinawa. Moreover, through the changes in producer prices for fruit trees and other agricultural products, farmers’ sales will increase to differing degrees among regions. Third, we conducted simulated scenarios of global warming with adaptation technology under the assumption that the development of high-temperature-tolerant fruit trees results in curbing global warming-induced productivity decline (with adaptation technology) as a recovery policy. This simulation revealed that the negative impact on fruit tree production to the west of Kanto will be lower than the range of decline and the equivalent variation gaps between Tohoku and Shikoku will decrease." @default.
- W4285275770 created "2022-07-14" @default.
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- W4285275770 date "2022-01-01" @default.
- W4285275770 modified "2023-09-29" @default.
- W4285275770 title "A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Regional Economies Through Japan’s Fruit Tree Production Changes: Evidence from Panel Data and Spatial CGE Models" @default.
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- W4285275770 doi "https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-6695-7_15" @default.
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