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• W4285676800 abstract "Abstract People are more likely to interact with other people of their ethnicity—a phenomenon known as ethnic homophily. In the United States, people of color are known to hold proportionately more high-contact jobs and are thus more at risk of virus infection. At the same time, these ethnic groups are on average younger than the rest of the population. This gives rise to interesting disease dynamics and non-trivial trade-offs that should be taken into consideration when developing prioritization strategies for future mass vaccine roll-outs. Here, we study the spread of COVID-19 through the U.S. population, stratified by age, ethnicity, and occupation, using a detailed, previously-developed compartmental disease model. Based on historic data from the U.S. mass COVID-19 vaccine roll-out that began in December 2020, we show, (i) how ethnic homophily affects the choice of optimal vaccine allocation strategy, (ii) that, notwithstanding potential ethical concerns, differentiating by ethnicity in these strategies can improve outcomes (e.g., fewer deaths), and (iii) that the most likely social context in the United States is very different from the standard assumptions made by models which do not account for ethnicity and this difference affects which allocation strategy is optimal. Highlights A social mixing model accounting for ethnic homophily and variable job-related risk level is developed. A scenario that differs strongly from standard homogeneous mixing assumptions best matches U.S. ethnicity-specific death and case counts. Two trade-offs are explored: Should (i) old or young, and (ii) people of color or White and Asian people first receive COVID-19 vaccines? Exhaustive simulation of a compartmental disease model identifies the optimal allocation strategy for different demographic groups. Optimal strategies depend on the underlying mixing pattern and strategies that differentiate vaccine access by ethnicity outperform others." @default.
• W4285676800 created "2022-07-17" @default.
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• W4285676800 date "2022-07-17" @default.
• W4285676800 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W4285676800 title "Ethnic homophily affects vaccine prioritization strategies" @default.
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• W4285676800 doi "https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.07.15.22277696" @default.
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