Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W4286268014> ?p ?o ?g. }
Showing items 1 to 80 of
80
with 100 items per page.
- W4286268014 endingPage "127945" @default.
- W4286268014 startingPage "127945" @default.
- W4286268014 abstract "The noticeable increase in the occurrence rate of the great ( M ≥ 8 . 0 ) global earthquakes since 2004, provokes the extensive investigation of non-stationarity in their temporal distribution. The reliable evaluation of their expected occurrence rates is a highly demanding aspect due to the co-existence of scarce long interevent times (extreme events) and localized clustering. In this work, we establish a two-step modeling procedure of the Markovian Arrival Process (MAP) to simultaneously forecast the occurrence of extreme events and short-term seismicity and we implement catalog-based pseudo-prospective forecasting experiments for the full distribution of the occurrence frequency. MAP model is a two-dimensional point process, whose intensity function is driven by a hidden Markov process, J t . We adopt the existence of an “idle” state that corresponds to periods of relative seismic quiescence and its occurrence rate, λ i d l e , is estimated a - priori , which is then embedded as a constant in the iterative fitting procedure of the MAP. We show the superiority of the MAP over renewal models and the temporal Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model, by producing robust probabilistic forecasts for the full temporal distribution of large earthquakes ( M ≥ 7 . 6 ) in circum-Pacific belt during 1918–2020, after considering a sensitivity analysis over both the testing periods and the magnitude thresholds. • Establishment of a two-step modeling procedure via a Markovian Arrival Process embedding non-stationary characteristics. • Long interevent times are considered extreme events and are modeled separately from the rest of the seismicity. • Pseudo-prospective forecasting experiments for the full distribution of earthquake frequency are provided." @default.
- W4286268014 created "2022-07-21" @default.
- W4286268014 creator A5003084145 @default.
- W4286268014 creator A5011288209 @default.
- W4286268014 creator A5027779465 @default.
- W4286268014 date "2022-10-01" @default.
- W4286268014 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W4286268014 title "Pseudo-prospective forecasting of large earthquakes full distribution in circum-Pacific belt incorporating non-stationary modeling" @default.
- W4286268014 cites W1547884832 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W1600947025 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W1840035273 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W1995233312 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W1999715347 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2023196525 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2029506146 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2039486340 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2059875912 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2064758233 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2075921839 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2077208327 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2084187315 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2101969505 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2105658614 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2107993714 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2109535573 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2112910128 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2121025190 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2133059647 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2140631557 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2142632673 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2160708044 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2162778980 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2740760141 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2746696346 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2790068857 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2886481558 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2887145803 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W2990523636 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W3034295318 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W3034775035 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W3042372982 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W3088487141 @default.
- W4286268014 cites W4239585388 @default.
- W4286268014 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2022.127945" @default.
- W4286268014 hasPublicationYear "2022" @default.
- W4286268014 type Work @default.
- W4286268014 citedByCount "0" @default.
- W4286268014 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
- W4286268014 hasAuthorship W4286268014A5003084145 @default.
- W4286268014 hasAuthorship W4286268014A5011288209 @default.
- W4286268014 hasAuthorship W4286268014A5027779465 @default.
- W4286268014 hasConcept C110121322 @default.
- W4286268014 hasConcept C127313418 @default.
- W4286268014 hasConcept C134306372 @default.
- W4286268014 hasConcept C165205528 @default.
- W4286268014 hasConcept C33923547 @default.
- W4286268014 hasConceptScore W4286268014C110121322 @default.
- W4286268014 hasConceptScore W4286268014C127313418 @default.
- W4286268014 hasConceptScore W4286268014C134306372 @default.
- W4286268014 hasConceptScore W4286268014C165205528 @default.
- W4286268014 hasConceptScore W4286268014C33923547 @default.
- W4286268014 hasLocation W42862680141 @default.
- W4286268014 hasOpenAccess W4286268014 @default.
- W4286268014 hasPrimaryLocation W42862680141 @default.
- W4286268014 hasRelatedWork W1968702681 @default.
- W4286268014 hasRelatedWork W2031573214 @default.
- W4286268014 hasRelatedWork W2092739438 @default.
- W4286268014 hasRelatedWork W2371527909 @default.
- W4286268014 hasRelatedWork W2772196783 @default.
- W4286268014 hasRelatedWork W2904667922 @default.
- W4286268014 hasRelatedWork W3016255354 @default.
- W4286268014 hasRelatedWork W3036915269 @default.
- W4286268014 hasRelatedWork W3109652668 @default.
- W4286268014 hasRelatedWork W3113596969 @default.
- W4286268014 hasVolume "604" @default.
- W4286268014 isParatext "false" @default.
- W4286268014 isRetracted "false" @default.
- W4286268014 workType "article" @default.