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- W4287630681 abstract "Initially emerged in the Chinese city Wuhan and subsequently spread almost worldwide causing a pandemic, the SARS-CoV-2 virus follows reasonably well the SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) epidemic model on contact networks in the Chinese case. In this paper, we investigate the prediction accuracy of the SIR model on networks also for Italy. Specifically, the Italian regions are a metapopulation represented by network nodes and the network links are the interactions between those regions. Then, we modify the network-based SIR model in order to take into account the different lockdown measures adopted by the Italian Government in the various phases of the spreading of the COVID-19. Our results indicate that the network-based model better predicts the daily cumulative infected individuals when time-varying lockdown protocols are incorporated in the classical SIR model." @default.
- W4287630681 created "2022-07-25" @default.
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- W4287630681 date "2020-10-27" @default.
- W4287630681 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
- W4287630681 title "Network-based Prediction of COVID-19 Epidemic Spreading in Italy" @default.
- W4287630681 doi "https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2010.14453" @default.
- W4287630681 hasPublicationYear "2020" @default.
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