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- W4288709720 abstract "Abstract Recent studies have suggested that anthropogenic climate change mainly affects the Small Island Developing States (SIDS), and farming systems in the Caribbean are vulnerable to climate change, especially changes in temperature and precipitation, due to their relatively high dependence on rainfall. However, there is a lack of research investigating the local impacts of climate change on agriculture in the U.S. Caribbean. This work evaluated how temperature and precipitation projections could affect water crop needs in Puerto Rico (Greater Antilles) and St. Croix (Lesser Antilles). We used Daymet climate data to create a baseline climatology (1981–2010), and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to create two future climatologies (2041–2070 and 2071–2100). The Thornthwaite water budget model was used to estimate water deficit, and the CROPRISK model to determine crop suitability for sweet pepper, banana, and plantain. Results indicated that water stress after 2041 is expected to be greater for most of the region from June–August, except for western Puerto Rico, where water deficit will be greater from January–March. For sweet pepper, banana, and plantain agroclimatic suitability, the most water-stressed season is projected to be January–July, mainly for southern Puerto Rico and St. Croix. November will be the only month during which all regions and all crops were projected to be highly suitable through the end of the 21 st Century. These findings suggested that Puerto Rico and St. Croix crop water stress may be more sensitive to future changes in temperature than changes in precipitation. Understanding the location and periods most sensitive to water stress and crop suitability should help local governments to plan for mitigating future food insecurity in the U.S. Caribbean." @default.
- W4288709720 created "2022-07-30" @default.
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- W4288709720 date "2022-07-29" @default.
- W4288709720 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
- W4288709720 title "The effects of projected climate change on crop water availability in the U.S. Caribbean using CMIP6 models" @default.
- W4288709720 doi "https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1883394/v1" @default.
- W4288709720 hasPublicationYear "2022" @default.
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