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• W4289443398 endingPage "2039" @default.
• W4289443398 startingPage "2003" @default.
• W4289443398 abstract "Abstract The effect of anthropogenic climate change in the ocean is challenging to project because atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond differently to forcing. This study focuses on changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean heat content ( $$Delta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml=http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML> <mml:mi>Δ</mml:mi> </mml:math> OHC), and the spatial pattern of ocean dynamic sea level ( $$Delta zeta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml=http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>Δ</mml:mi> <mml:mi>ζ</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> ). We analyse experiments following the FAFMIP protocol, in which AOGCMs are forced at the ocean surface with standardised heat, freshwater and momentum flux perturbations, typical of those produced by doubling $$hbox {CO}_{{2}}$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml=http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML> <mml:msub> <mml:mtext>CO</mml:mtext> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:math> . Using two new heat-flux-forced experiments, we find that the AMOC weakening is mainly caused by and linearly related to the North Atlantic heat flux perturbation, and further weakened by a positive coupled heat flux feedback. The quantitative relationships are model-dependent, but few models show significant AMOC change due to freshwater or momentum forcing, or to heat flux forcing outside the North Atlantic. AMOC decline causes warming at the South Atlantic-Southern Ocean interface. It does not strongly affect the global-mean vertical distribution of $$Delta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml=http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML> <mml:mi>Δ</mml:mi> </mml:math> OHC, which is dominated by the Southern Ocean. AMOC decline strongly affects $$Delta zeta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml=http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>Δ</mml:mi> <mml:mi>ζ</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> in the North Atlantic, with smaller effects in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific. The ensemble-mean $$Delta zeta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml=http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>Δ</mml:mi> <mml:mi>ζ</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> and $$Delta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml=http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML> <mml:mi>Δ</mml:mi> </mml:math> OHC patterns are mostly attributable to the heat added by the flux perturbation, with smaller effects from ocean heat and salinity redistribution. The ensemble spread, on the other hand, is largely due to redistribution, with pronounced disagreement among the AOGCMs." @default.
• W4289443398 created "2022-08-02" @default.
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• W4289443398 date "2022-08-02" @default.
• W4289443398 modified "2023-10-15" @default.
• W4289443398 title "Greenhouse-gas forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and related worldwide sea-level change" @default.
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