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- W4294877983 abstract "To compare the predictability of two stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events occurring in 2009 and 2010, ensemble forecast experiments are conducted using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). It is found that the predictable period of the vortex splitting SSW in 2009 is about 7 days which is much shorter than that of the vortex-displacement SSW in 2010. The latter event is predictable more than 13 days in advance. The ensemble spread in the upper stratosphere for medium-range forecasts is found to be enlarged just prior to the onset of the 2009 SSW event, while no such enlargement is seen for the 2010 SSW event." @default.
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- W4294877983 date "2022-01-01" @default.
- W4294877983 modified "2023-10-05" @default.
- W4294877983 title "On the Existence of the Predictability Barrier in the Wintertime Stratospheric Polar Vortex: Intercomparison of Two Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in 2009 and 2010 Winters" @default.
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- W4294877983 doi "https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2022-050" @default.
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