Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W4301391553> ?p ?o ?g. }
- W4301391553 abstract "Our ability to predict natural phenomena can be limited by incomplete information. This issue is exemplified by “Laplace's demon,” an imaginary creature proposed in the 18th century, who knew everything about everything, and thus could predict the full nature of the universe forward or backward in time. Quantum mechanics, among other things, has cast doubt on the possibility of Laplace's demon in the full sense, but the idea still serves as a useful metaphor for thinking about the extent to which prediction is limited by incomplete information on deterministic processes versus random factors. Here, we use simple analytical models and computer simulations to illustrate how data limits can be captured in a Bayesian framework, and how they influence our ability to predict evolution. We show how uncertainty in measurements of natural selection, or low predictability of external environmental factors affecting selection, can greatly reduce predictive power, often swamping the influence of intrinsic randomness caused by genetic drift. Thus, more accurate knowledge concerning the causes and action of natural selection is key to improving prediction. Fortunately, our analyses and simulations show quantitatively that reasonable improvements in data quantity and quality can meaningfully increase predictability." @default.
- W4301391553 created "2022-10-05" @default.
- W4301391553 creator A5030592051 @default.
- W4301391553 creator A5030626361 @default.
- W4301391553 creator A5060686398 @default.
- W4301391553 creator A5073363693 @default.
- W4301391553 creator A5091065641 @default.
- W4301391553 date "2022-10-04" @default.
- W4301391553 modified "2023-10-13" @default.
- W4301391553 title "Laplace's demon in biology: Models of evolutionary prediction" @default.
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