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• W4306147482 abstract "<strong class=journal-contentHeaderColor>Abstract.</strong> Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO<span class=inline-formula>₂</span>) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO<span class=inline-formula>₂</span> emissions (<span class=inline-formula><i>E</i>_FOS</span>) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (<span class=inline-formula><i>E</i>_LUC</span>), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO<span class=inline-formula>₂</span> concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (<span class=inline-formula><i>G</i>_ATM</span>) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO<span class=inline-formula>₂</span> sink (<span class=inline-formula><i>S</i>_OCEAN</span>) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO<span class=inline-formula>₂</span> sink (<span class=inline-formula><i>S</i>_LAND</span>) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (<span class=inline-formula><i>B</i>_IM</span>), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as <span class=inline-formula>±</span>1<span class=inline-formula><i>σ</i></span>. For the year 2021, <span class=inline-formula><i>E</i>_FOS</span> increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 <span class=inline-formula>±</span> 0.5 GtC yr<span class=inline-formula>^−1</span> (9.9 <span class=inline-formula>±</span> 0.5 GtC yr<span class=inline-formula>^−1</span> when the cement carbonation sink is included), and <span class=inline-formula><i>E</i>_LUC</span> was 1.1 <span class=inline-formula>±</span> 0.7 GtC yr<span class=inline-formula>^−1</span>, for a total anthropogenic CO<span class=inline-formula>₂</span> emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 <span class=inline-formula>±</span> 0.8 GtC yr<span class=inline-formula>^−1</span> (40.0 <span class=inline-formula>±</span> 2.9 GtCO<span class=inline-formula>₂</span>). Also, for 2021, <span class=inline-formula><i>G</i>_ATM</span> was 5.2 <span class=inline-formula>±</span> 0.2 GtC yr<span class=inline-formula>^−1</span> (2.5 <span class=inline-formula>±</span> 0.1 ppm yr<span class=inline-formula>^−1</span>), <span class=inline-formula><i>S</i>_OCEAN</span> was 2.9  <span class=inline-formula>±</span> 0.4 GtC yr<span class=inline-formula>^−1</span>, and <span class=inline-formula><i>S</i>_LAND</span> was 3.5 <span class=inline-formula>±</span> 0.9 GtC yr<span class=inline-formula>^−1</span>, with a <span class=inline-formula><i>B</i>_IM</span> of <span class=inline-formula>−</span>0.6 GtC yr<span class=inline-formula>^−1</span> (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO<span class=inline-formula>₂</span> concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 <span class=inline-formula>±</span> 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in <span class=inline-formula><i>E</i>_FOS</span> relative to 2021 of <span class=inline-formula>+</span>1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO<span class=inline-formula>₂</span> concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr<span class=inline-formula>^−1</span> persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO<span class=inline-formula>₂</span> fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO<span class=inline-formula>₂</span> flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at <a href=https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022>https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022</a> (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b)." @default.
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• W4306147482 date "2022-10-13" @default.
• W4306147482 modified "2023-10-14" @default.
• W4306147482 title "Reply on RC3" @default.
• W4306147482 doi "https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-328-ac3" @default.
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