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- W4307717775 abstract "We present a Bayesian modeling and decision procedureProcedures to answer the question of whether the reaction speedSpeed of a single individual is slower and thus more risky than the speedSpeed of a randomly selected individual in a reference population. The behavioral domain under investigation is simple reaction times (SRTs). To do this, we need to consider aspects of Bayesian cognitive modeling, psychometric measurement, person-centered risk calculation, and coding with the experimentalExperimental, Turing-complete, functional, probabilisticProbabilistic programming language WebPPL. We pursue several goals: First, we lean on the new and paradoxical metaphor of a cautious gunslinger. We think that a whole range of risky situations can be embedded into this metaphor. Second, the above described gunslinger metaphor can be mapped to the framework of Bayesian decision strategies. We want to show by way of example that within this framework the research question ‘transfer the locus of longitudinal control’ in Partial Autonomous Driver Assistant Systems (PADAS) can be tackled. Third, evidence-basedEvidence priors for our generative Bayesian models are obtained by reuse of meta-analytical results. For demonstration purposes we reuse reaction-time interval estimates of Card, Moran, and Newell’s (CMN’s) meta-analysis, the Model Human ProcessorHumans (MHP). Fourth, the modification of priors to posterior probabilityProbability distributions is weighted by a likelihoodLikelihood function, which is used to consider the SRT data from a single subject as evidenceEvidence and to measure how plausibly alternative prior hypothesesHypotheses generate these data. Fifth, we want to demonstrate the expressiveness and usefulnessUsefulness of WebPPL in computing posterior distributions and personal probabilitiesProbability of risk." @default.
- W4307717775 created "2022-11-05" @default.
- W4307717775 creator A5041711513 @default.
- W4307717775 date "2022-11-01" @default.
- W4307717775 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W4307717775 title "Personalized Risk Calculations with a Generative Bayesian Model: Am I Fast Enough to React in Time?" @default.
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- W4307717775 doi "https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-10784-9_2" @default.
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