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• W4309779391 endingPage "105984" @default.
• W4309779391 startingPage "105984" @default.
• W4309779391 abstract "Widespread event of lightning occurred in two states of eastern India on June 25, 2020, killing 83 people in Bihar and 24 people in Uttar Pradesh (UP). Lightning event is studied using ground-based lightning observational data and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A Specialized forecast system for lightning and thunderstorm is needed to minimize the loss of lives. The updraft and ice particle concentration play essential roles in the initialization of lightning inside the thundercloud. The charge generation and separation inside the clouds play an essential role in the severity of lightning. The Lightning Potential Index (LPI) measures the potential of charge generation and separation inside the clouds. It plays a significant role in determining lightning-prone zones. As the monsoon intensified over the Indo Gangetic Plains, lightning simulation is carried out using an ensemble of different WRF model configurations. The model has been integrated from 24th June 0000 UTC to 26th June 0600 UTC with an ensemble of 9 members. 8 members are simulated with a single domain (3 km resolution), and only the second member is simulated with a triple nested domain (9, 3, and 1 km resolution) over Bihar. The ensemble consists of 1 control +8 members with different configurations of the WRF model. LPI is calculated using the model-derived parameters. Furthermore, the model explicitly simulated lightning flash count using a lightning parameterization scheme. The results are analyzed using the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) ground-based observation data. Every ensemble member's results are distinct from each other. This shows the sensitivity of every configuration. Member 2 (M2) is the triple nested member; it uses the same physics option as member 1 (M1). Moreover, M2 shows comparatively good results towards the observation. Simulated radar reflectivity is compared and analyzed using Indian National Satellite System (INSAT-3D) 3D Brightness Temperature (BT). To check the results of all ensemble members model skill score has been calculated. Ensemble probability is calculated to measure the spatial pattern and threat of lightning based on LPI, and it recorded the high lightning threat (90–100) % probability over northwest Bihar (Gopalganj), and it also recorded the heavy rainfall (300 mm). The skill scores of simulated lightning flash count in M2, M8, and M9 showed reasonably good POD values (0.6, 0.5, and 0.69, respectively). • Tested different configuration of WRF model to simulated Lightning event with an ensemble technique. • To understand the lightning activity of Bihar, Lightning Potential Index (LPI) has been calculated based on simulated model output and explicitly on lightning flash count. • Ensemble mean, ensemble probability and model skill scores are used to understand the Bihar Lightning event. • M2 performs better than M1 despite of using same physical configurations, however their resolutions are different. • LPI performs better than lightning flash count to simulate lightning activity" @default.
• W4309779391 created "2022-11-29" @default.
• W4309779391 creator A5015735615 @default.
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• W4309779391 date "2022-12-01" @default.
• W4309779391 modified "2023-10-02" @default.
• W4309779391 title "Numerical simulation of a widespread lightning event over north India using an ensemble of WRF modeling configurations" @default.
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• W4309779391 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2022.105984" @default.
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