FRINK Linked Data Fragments server

Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W4310062085> ?p ?o ?g. }

• W4310062085 endingPage "28" @default.
• W4310062085 startingPage "2" @default.
• W4310062085 abstract "Abstract Modeling and forecasting of mortality rates are closely related to a wide range of actuarial practices, such as the designing of pension schemes. To improve the forecasting accuracy, age coherence is incorporated in many recent mortality models, which suggests that the long-term forecasts will not diverge infinitely among age groups. Despite their usefulness, misspecification is likely to occur for individual mortality models when applied in empirical studies. The reliableness and accuracy of forecast rates are therefore negatively affected. In this study, an ensemble averaging or model averaging (MA) approach is proposed, which adopts age-specific weights and asymptotically achieves age coherence in mortality forecasting. The ensemble space contains both newly developed age-coherent and classic age-incoherent models to achieve the diversity. To realize the asymptotic age coherence, consider parameter errors, and avoid overfitting, the proposed method minimizes the variance of out-of-sample forecasting errors, with a uniquely designed coherent penalty and smoothness penalty. Our empirical data set include ten European countries with mortality rates of 0–100 age groups and spanning 1950–2016. The outstanding performance of MA is presented using the empirical sample for mortality forecasting. This finding robustly holds in a range of sensitivity analyses. A case study based on the Italian population is finally conducted to demonstrate the improved forecasting efficiency of MA and the validity of the proposed estimation of weights, as well as its usefulness in actuarial applications such as the annuity pricing." @default.
• W4310062085 created "2022-11-30" @default.
• W4310062085 creator A5026392511 @default.
• W4310062085 creator A5075126359 @default.
• W4310062085 date "2022-11-25" @default.
• W4310062085 modified "2023-10-14" @default.
• W4310062085 title "Forecasting mortality rates with a coherent ensemble averaging approach" @default.
• W4310062085 cites W1502876530 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W1605576934 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W1891108166 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W1984065484 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W1986528915 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W1987464952 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W1990906876 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W2018405891 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W2049781056 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W2054619286 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W2055547440 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W2057331441 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W2125536334 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W2126771422 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W2131116400 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W2134747174 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W2151988897 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W2159307101 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W2162859319 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W2559652340 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W2590687529 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W2602449753 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W2602943118 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W2794857283 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W2946495169 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W2986953012 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W3036124210 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W3097269218 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W3124139837 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W3125590267 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W3128789444 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W3138505717 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W3165381206 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W3166048347 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W4236316114 @default.
• W4310062085 cites W4320800818 @default.
• W4310062085 doi "https://doi.org/10.1017/asb.2022.23" @default.
• W4310062085 hasPublicationYear "2022" @default.
• W4310062085 type Work @default.
• W4310062085 citedByCount "2" @default.
• W4310062085 countsByYear W43100620852022 @default.
• W4310062085 countsByYear W43100620852023 @default.
• W4310062085 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
• W4310062085 hasAuthorship W4310062085A5026392511 @default.
• W4310062085 hasAuthorship W4310062085A5075126359 @default.
• W4310062085 hasBestOaLocation W43100620851 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConcept C105795698 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConcept C129848803 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConcept C149782125 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConcept C154945302 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConcept C159985019 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConcept C185592680 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConcept C192562407 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConcept C198531522 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConcept C204323151 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConcept C22019652 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConcept C2781181686 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConcept C33923547 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConcept C41008148 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConcept C43617362 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConcept C50644808 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConceptScore W4310062085C105795698 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConceptScore W4310062085C129848803 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConceptScore W4310062085C149782125 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConceptScore W4310062085C154945302 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConceptScore W4310062085C159985019 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConceptScore W4310062085C185592680 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConceptScore W4310062085C192562407 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConceptScore W4310062085C198531522 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConceptScore W4310062085C204323151 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConceptScore W4310062085C22019652 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConceptScore W4310062085C2781181686 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConceptScore W4310062085C33923547 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConceptScore W4310062085C41008148 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConceptScore W4310062085C43617362 @default.
• W4310062085 hasConceptScore W4310062085C50644808 @default.
• W4310062085 hasIssue "1" @default.
• W4310062085 hasLocation W43100620851 @default.
• W4310062085 hasOpenAccess W4310062085 @default.
• W4310062085 hasPrimaryLocation W43100620851 @default.
• W4310062085 hasRelatedWork W1771779360 @default.
• W4310062085 hasRelatedWork W1988747059 @default.
• W4310062085 hasRelatedWork W1993731342 @default.
• W4310062085 hasRelatedWork W2119095362 @default.
• W4310062085 hasRelatedWork W2124986934 @default.
• W4310062085 hasRelatedWork W2172032168 @default.
• W4310062085 hasRelatedWork W2290081135 @default.
• W4310062085 hasRelatedWork W3022782703 @default.
• W4310062085 hasRelatedWork W56086665 @default.
• W4310062085 hasRelatedWork W871906761 @default.
• W4310062085 hasVolume "53" @default.

• next