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• W4310076687 endingPage "100262" @default.
• W4310076687 startingPage "100262" @default.
• W4310076687 abstract "A novel and effective approach to safety management requires evaluating the safety of locations over short time periods (e.g. minutes). Unlike traditional methods that are based on aggregate crash records over a few years, crash proneness in this approach reflects short-time durations and is related to dynamic traffic changes and dangerous driving events. This paper proposes a new approach to dynamically assess the crash proneness of traffic conditions within a very short time (e.g., signal cycle length) and to dynamically identify high-risk locations. Using a Bayesian hierarchal Extreme Value Theory (EVT) model, the short-term crash risk metrics, risk of crash (ROC), and return level (RL), are calculated using traffic conflict data. A short-term hazardous location identification and ranking framework is developed based on crash-risk threshold exceedances for every short-term analysis period. By further investigating the variation in short-term crash risk, longer-term hazardous location identification and ranking metrics such as the longer-term crash risk index (LTCRI) and the percent of time exceeding (PTE) were developed. Using these metrics, a framework is proposed by which hazardous intersections can be dynamically classified and ranked in both the short-term and the longer-term. This ranking may be dynamically updated as more data becomes available. The proposed framework was applied to a trajectory dataset consisting of 47 signalized intersections obtained from a UAV-based dataset. Conflicts were identified from vehicle trajectories and were used to compute the proposed short-term and longer-term metrics. The intersections within the network were then ranked based on the proposed framework. This study demonstrates the importance of investigating short-term fluctuations in crash risk that may otherwise be lost to averaging in longer-term analysis and proposes a simple and practical solution." @default.
• W4310076687 created "2022-11-30" @default.
• W4310076687 creator A5036535728 @default.
• W4310076687 creator A5037889518 @default.
• W4310076687 creator A5073267110 @default.
• W4310076687 date "2023-03-01" @default.
• W4310076687 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
• W4310076687 title "Dynamic identification of short-term and longer-term hazardous locations using a conflict-based real-time extreme value safety model" @default.
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• W4310076687 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amar.2022.100262" @default.
• W4310076687 hasPublicationYear "2023" @default.
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