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- W4311332371 abstract "The COVID-19 pandemic challenges healthcare systems globally. Models support decision-makers in optimizing vaccination strategies. Our objective was to estimate COVID-19 related hospital admissions in the upcoming Winter 2022/2023 season assuming BA.4/BA.5 as dominant variants. We modeled the effects of a candidate bivalent vaccine in adults compared to no additional booster campaign in Fall or boosting with first generation vaccines. We developed a cohort model using vaccination and hospitalization data published by Germany’s Robert Koch Institute. To account for waning vaccine-induced immunity, we modeled the decrease in neutralizing antibody titers attributed to BA.4/BA.5 by relating in-vitro neutralization titers to protection from infection based on previous studies. This approach is conservative given that bivalent vaccines have shown a slower decline in titers compared to monovalent vaccines. Coverage was assumed identical to the first booster campaign, with a rapid roll out over 6 weeks starting in September 2022, and outcomes reported for the period September-December. Without an additional booster campaign in the Fall, average population protection rates could drop to 24.7% (range 21.2-28.1%) leading to 214,247 hospital admissions, and weekly hospitalizations reaching 21,472. Using first generation prototype boosters, we project 163,301 hospital admissions and a weekly peak of 14,887, which represent reductions of 24% and 31%, respectively. Based on recent neutralizing antibody results, using a bivalent booster could reduce the number of hospitalizations down to 147,392 with peak weekly admissions of 13,018, which represent reductions of 31% and 39% compared to no booster. Results will be updated as more data become available. Assuming BA.4/BA.5 are dominant variants during Winter 2022/2023, using a next generation bivalent vaccine within a condensed 6-week period beginning September 2022 would prevent a significant amount of hospital admissions in Germany, as well as lower the peak in weekly hospitalization rates, compared to monovalent vaccines." @default.
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- W4311332371 date "2022-12-01" @default.
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- W4311332371 title "EPH124 Prediction Model to Evaluate the Impact of a Next Generation Bivalent Omicron-Containing COVID-19 Booster (MRNA.1273.214) on Hospitalizations in Adults in Germany" @default.
- W4311332371 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2022.09.1045" @default.
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