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- W4311618885 abstract "In this paper, various methods used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to issue Long-Range Forecast (LRF) of Southwest monsoon rainfall and its current status are discussed. IMD started issuing long-range forecast for rainfall in 1886 using conditions like snow cover. Since then, several forecast techniques were developed for improving the accuracy of seasonal forecasts. Presently, the Statistical Ensemble Forecast System (SEFS) based on empirical method and Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) based on dynamic seasonal prediction system are used to issue monsoon rainfall forecast for the country. A comparison of the present forecasting method based on SEFS reveals improvement in the average absolute error by 6.57% during the recent 13 years period, as compared to the previous 13 years. The absolute error in the MMCFS simulations during the period 2007–2019 was slightly higher, 7.8% indicating that the performance of SEFS is better for all India rainfall seasonal forecasts for the recent years. The seasonal forecasts of all India rainfall for the southwest monsoon season based on the MMCFS model have shown comparatively good skill in predicting below-normal rainfall during the El Nino events (e.g., 2014 and 2015). Thus, advancement in research and development is needed to further improve the seasonal forecasting methods." @default.
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- W4311618885 date "2022-12-17" @default.
- W4311618885 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
- W4311618885 title "Operational Seasonal Forecasting of the Southwest Monsoon Rainfall" @default.
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- W4311618885 doi "https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6929-4_2" @default.
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