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- W4313186578 abstract "<abstract> <p>The number of daily new cases of an epidemic is assumed to evolve as the exponential of a Wiener process with Poissonian jumps that are exponentially distributed. The model parameters can be estimated by using the method of moments. In an application to the COVID-19 pandemic in the province of Québec, Canada, the proposed model is shown to be acceptable. General formulas for the probability that a given increase in the number of daily new cases is due to the normal variations of the continuous part of the process or rather to a jump of this process are given. Based on these formulas, the probability of observing the likely start of a new wave of infections is calculated for the application to the COVID-19 pandemic.</p> </abstract>" @default.
- W4313186578 created "2023-01-06" @default.
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- W4313186578 date "2022-01-01" @default.
- W4313186578 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W4313186578 title "A Wiener process with jumps to model the logarithm of new epidemic cases" @default.
- W4313186578 doi "https://doi.org/10.3934/biophy.2022023" @default.
- W4313186578 hasPublicationYear "2022" @default.
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