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- W4313236006 abstract "沙漠是重要的地表景观,其变化深刻影响着人类的生产生活,但是,目前对全球沙漠的长期变化规律及其气候影响了解有限。本文使用气候再分析数据和遥感产品分别计算了全球沙漠的分布与面积变化,分析了不同气候因子对沙漠变化的影响,并利用CMIP6模式结果估算了未来全球沙漠变化趋势。结果表明,全球沙漠面积约17.64×10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>2</sup>,占陆地面积的12%,在1980s末到1990s快速减小,其中沙漠缩小主要发生在北非和澳大利亚,21世纪初沙漠开始缓慢扩张。气候干旱区面积主要表现为年代际波动,各地区干旱指数(AI)与沙漠面积的变化有明显差异。相关性分析表明,降水增加对沙漠缩小有直接影响,潜在蒸发、温度和湿度和沙漠面积呈负相关关系,而风速与沙漠面积变化的关系有区域性差异。CMIP6模式结果表明,在ssp245和ssp585情景下,21世纪全球沙漠都将有不同程度的扩张,其中亚洲、非洲和澳大利亚沙漠扩张最多,而北非南部沙漠将会缩小,北非沙漠北移。" @default.
- W4313236006 created "2023-01-06" @default.
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- W4313236006 date "2023-04-06" @default.
- W4313236006 modified "2023-10-01" @default.
- W4313236006 title "全球沙漠变化的气候影响" @default.
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- W4313236006 doi "https://doi.org/10.1360/sste-2022-0128" @default.
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