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• W4313650741 abstract "Abstract The polar-to-subtropical temperature gradient in the free troposphere is a key driver of the mid-latitude jet stream response to climate change. Climate models tend to steepen this gradient in response to large greenhouse gas increases, due to very strong subtropical upper-level warming. This strengthens the simulated jets. However, multiple lines of observational evidence point to a slowing northern jet over the satellite era, driven by enhanced Arctic free-tropospheric warming and weakening of the gradient. Here, we reconcile these seemingly contradictory results by showing that the CMIP6 ensemble successfully simulates both the observed satellite-era slowdown/weakening, and the speedup/strengthening with strong global warming. Specifically, the observed gradient weakening from 1980–1997 to 1997–2014 appears inconsistent (p < 0.05) with the simulated gradient changes for just 6 of 45 models using Microwave Satellite Unit observations, and for just 5 of 45 models using reanalysis estimates. The observed jet slowdown appears inconsistent with the simulated jet changes for just 1 of 45 models. Yet a strong majority of the models reverse course under a high-emissions future-type scenario, simulating gradient strengthening and jet speedup. Future work will seek to clarify the cause(s) of this unexpected difference between past and future atmospheric responses." @default.
• W4313650741 created "2023-01-07" @default.
• W4313650741 creator A5030744428 @default.
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• W4313650741 date "2023-01-06" @default.
• W4313650741 modified "2023-09-29" @default.
• W4313650741 title "CMIP6 captures the satellite-era jet slowdown and Arctic amplification - yet projects future jet speedup and tropical amplification" @default.
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• W4313650741 doi "https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2432307/v1" @default.
• W4313650741 hasPublicationYear "2023" @default.
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