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- W4316924871 abstract "BACKGROUND AND AIM: Human visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne disease of significant public health concern in Brazil. Areas of high prevalence have shifted in recent decades due to rapid development, changing socioeconomic conditions, and climate change. Emerging evidence suggests that incidence is affected by regional weather patterns such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which has profound impacts on local meteorological conditions in Brazil. However, understanding of the effects of short-term weather variability remains inadequate, particularly in the context of VL. Accordingly, we explored the relationship between local weather conditions and VL in São Paulo State, Brazil. METHODS: We obtained monthly cases of VL in São Paulo State from the Ministry of Health Information System for Notifiable Diseases for each municipality from 2010-2020. We extracted monthly average temperature, precipitation, and specific humidity from ERA5. We used conditional quasi-Poisson regression models to assess the relationship between meteorological variables and VL, conditioning on municipality and adjusting for temporal trends. We assessed lagged effects of meteorological variables from 0 to 6 months, corresponding with the long incubation period for VL in humans. RESULTS: There were 1,958 documented cases of VL from 2010-2020. We observed higher rates of VL associated with increased precipitation and humidity and decreased temperatures. Specifically, a 1˚C decrease in average monthly temperature was associated with a 4.6% (95% CI: 2.5%, 6.7%) increase in VL cases two months later. A 1 mm increase in precipitation and 1 g/kg increase in humidity led to a respective 2.5% (1.2%, 3.8%) and 3.3% (1.3%, 5.2%) increase in VL cases one month later. CONCLUSIONS: Local weather patterns are associated with the incidence of human VL in São Paulo State. These results highlight the potential importance of continued climate change on the fluctuating distribution of VL. KEYWORDS: Climate Change, Visceral Leishmaniasis, Infectious Disease, Meteorology" @default.
- W4316924871 created "2023-01-18" @default.
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- W4316924871 date "2022-09-18" @default.
- W4316924871 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
- W4316924871 title "Meteorological Factors Associated with Visceral Leishmaniasis in São Paulo State, Brazil" @default.
- W4316924871 doi "https://doi.org/10.1289/isee.2022.p-0585" @default.
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