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• W4321202099 endingPage "104068" @default.
• W4321202099 startingPage "104068" @default.
• W4321202099 abstract "Extreme high temperature (EHT) events are the major indicator of global warming and their effect on natural ecosystems and agricultural production. The present study investigates the historical changes and projected trends of EHT events using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs) and observation data in East Africa. The distribution mapping (DM) approach effectively reduces the biases and improves the CMIP6 GCMs to match the observation data. This study considers the intensity of hot days (TXx) and hot nights (TNx) and two frequency indices estimated from the 90th percentile of the hot days (TX90p) and hot nights (TN90p) to evaluate the EHT events. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sens's slope were used to estimate the trend of the EHT indices and significance level. Moreover, a regression approach was utilized to examine the relationship between EHT indices and meteorological conditions during the historical period (1990–2011). The results demonstrate that the recent period (2001−2010) experienced more frequent hot days (∼10–15%) and nights (∼12–20%) compared to the first decade (∼0–7%) (1990–2000) in most of the East Africa region. In addition, most stations across East Africa show a significant positive trend for the frequency of hot nights. The ensemble of the CMIP6 model simulation showed that the EHT events were projected to continue rising during the end of the 21st century (2071–2095). The intensity of hot days and nights is projected to escalate between 1.5 and 3 °C and 1–4 °C under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios. Although, a high upsurge was detected in the frequency of hot nights (∼23–30%) during far future (2071–2095) compared to mid-future (2041–2070) under SSP5–8.5 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios. In addition, a strong correlation (R2 = ±0.8) was found between meteorological conditions and EHT indices, indicating the influence of atmospheric circulation on extreme temperature over East Africa. Our study provides valuable information regarding developing new policies and early warning systems for water resource managers and policymakers." @default.
• W4321202099 created "2023-02-18" @default.
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• W4321202099 date "2023-03-01" @default.
• W4321202099 modified "2023-10-14" @default.
• W4321202099 title "Historical and projected changes in Extreme High Temperature events over East Africa and associated with meteorological conditions using CMIP6 models" @default.
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• W4321202099 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104068" @default.
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