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• W4322005875 abstract "&lt;p&gt;Our infrastructure systems are subject to climatic hazards which disrupt their provided service causing discomfort for their users as well as direct and indirect losses for their stakeholders to restore their service. This requires infrastructure managers to regularly assess the resilience of their system under potential hazard scenarios and plan and execute climate adaptation interventions to enhance the resilience of their system. To this aim, the common practice is to plan interventions based on data from past occurred events, while in essence, interventions are to protect infrastructure systems against future hazard scenarios. In fact, studies have shown that, due to climate change, hazards such as flooding are projected to occur more frequently and severely. In particular, a 30-100% increase in extreme rainfall intensities, as well as flood magnitudes, are projected by 2100 in many European countries. Hence, measures that are planned to meet the requirements of past events are not necessarily sufficient to withstand future events. However, except for few studies that focused on climate-adaptable interventions against future scenarios of sea level rise, the existing body of flood mitigation research lacks quantitative analysis of the impact of climate change trends in evaluating and planning interventions, particularly for assessing the effect of inland flooding on transportation networks. The goal of this study is to investigate how the future evolutions of the climatic hazards due to climate change affect the planning and evaluation of climate adaptation interventions to enhance the resilience of infrastructure systems. In particular, it will be studied how the ongoing trend of climate change in increasing the frequency and severity of flood events can be incorporated into planning and evaluating resilience-enhancing interventions. To this aim, a simulation methodology is proposed that generates a host of stochastic scenarios with and without considering the effect of climate change, as well as with and without the effect of candidate interventions. Each scenario represents a random realization of the entire system starting from random scenarios of heavy rainfall leading to flooding, physical and functional impacts on infrastructure components as well as their performance as a network, and lastly, the ensuing direct and indirect consequences due to restoration efforts and loss of service. The analysis provides insight for infrastructure managers into how each candidate intervention, designed based on past events, should be modified in order to remain sufficiently effective against future scenarios of hazard under climate change.&lt;/p&gt;" @default.
• W4322005875 created "2023-02-26" @default.
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• W4322005875 date "2023-02-25" @default.
• W4322005875 modified "2023-10-17" @default.
• W4322005875 title "Assessing the effect of climate change trends on the effectiveness of climate adaptation measures: A simulation approach" @default.
• W4322005875 doi "https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7572" @default.
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